Projected range shifts of emerging agricultural weeds under climate change in central Europe

Publication in Weed Research, 66(3).

Abstract

Assessing which weed species are likely to expand under climate change is essential for proactive management. While climate-driven range expansions of many weed species have been documented globally, projections for their future spread in central Europe remain limited and poorly understood. We used ensemble species distribution models for 23 weed species that are currently emerging in central Europe to evaluate their climatically suitable areas at present and future time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100) under four different future climate change scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, SSP5–8.5). The climatic suitability of our study area is predicted to increase for all species in the two earlier time periods and under moderate climate change conditions. However, climate change is likely to reduce the potentially suitable area in later time periods and under more severe scenarios. The climatically suitable area is expected to decline or remain stable for 14 of the modelled species, of which two thirds show a decline by 2100, regardless of the climatic trajectory. Furthermore, hotspots of climatic suitability, where multiple emerging weeds overlap, are shifting northwest under the two more moderate climate change scenarios, whereas under the two severe climate change scenarios, hotspots are likely to shrink by 2100. Additionally, we found that most of the modelled species whose suitable area increases are C4 plant species, while those with decreasing suitability are predominantly C3 plants. Our findings underscore the importance of monitoring and proactive management strategies to mitigate the impacts of emerging weeds, particularly those better adapted to future climatic conditions.